Tag Archives: Energy Trends Insider

What’s Happening in the Middle East: An Easy Analysis

Richard Ha writes:

The Middle East is on everyone’s mind: How will it affect oil prices? Will traders or oil companies just jack up the prices on every hint of bad news?

Robert Rapier explains what is going on in a way that we can all understand easily. This is the first part of a series that should be very interesting.

Here in Hawai‘i, let’s get busy working on solutions to our problems of food security and rising oil and gas prices.

From Energy Trends Insider: 

The Oil Markets as a Thanksgiving Turkey

       BY ROBERT RAPIER ON JUN 17, 2014 WITH 9 RESPONSES

This week BP (NYSE: BP) released their Statistical Review of World Energy 2014. This is always a big event for energy wonks, and as always I will break it down in a series of articles. My goal is always to flesh out important tidbits that were perhaps overlooked by the media. Here are some of the major findings from this year’s release that have been reported. In 2013:

  • US oil production had the largest increase in the country’s history
  • US oil demand grew at a faster pace last year than China’s, although China’s overall energy demand grew faster
  • Asia increased solar output last year more than Europe for the first time ever
  • Emerging economies accounted for 80% of energy consumption growth
  • Global oil production rose to a new all-time high

In one of those overlooked tidbits I like to point out, while global oil production did indeed set a new record — rising in 2013 by 557,000 barrels per day (bpd) over 2012 — without the US increase of 1.1 million bpd, global production would have declined by 554,000 bpd. But I will take a deeper dive into that starting next week. Today I want to talk about Iraq.

Or, more precisely the impact the unfolding events in Iraq have had on the global oil markets, and more specifically how those oil markets actually work. I had an interesting discussion with someone last week, after a remark was made about oil companies using any excuse — like potential supply disruptions in Iraq — to immediately jack up oil prices.

Read the rest

Natural Gas Inventory Unexpectedly Low, Futures High

Richard Ha writes:

From the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, some concern over the price and availability of natural gas:

Natural Gas Makes Biggest Gain in Two Months

Concern Over Low Stockpile Lifts Market

By Timothy Puko

Natural-gas prices on Thursday posted their biggest one-day gain in two months after a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. inventories reignited fears that supplies are too low.

Producers added 24 billion cubic feet to stockpiles in the week ended April 11, less than the 34 billion cubic feet average forecast by analysts and traders in a Wall Street Journal survey. Gas supplies are coming off an 11-year-low after a frigid winter boosted demand to burn it for home heating…. Read the rest

The big picture is this: natural gas is pumped underground during the summer, when production is high, and then pulled out of the ground and used in the winters. Because this past winter on the mainland was exceptionally cold, natural gas stores were drawn down much more than is normal or was anticipated.

Now that we’re in the season when we pump natural gas back into storage, there might not be enough to take care of next winter without the price escalating significantly.

The Wall Street Journal article above notes a spike in natural gas futures as people realize that not much gas is going back into underground storage to compensate for this past cold spell. Stock traders are saying, “Holy smoke!”

This is one of the reasons I’m pushing so hard for geothermal – so that we can get off this treadmill.

I was just talking to Robert Rapier, who is saying the same thing. He said that a mild winter might not have caused this mid-$4/1000 cubic feet price to seem normal. He wrote about this last month at Energy Trends Insider:

Gas Inventories Reach 11-Year Low

By Robert Rapier on March 13, 2014 with 7 responses 

Natural Gas Update

Two weeks ago I wrote about the abnormal situation with natural gas inventories in Natural Gas Inventories are Headed Toward Zero. I got a number of questions and comments about that essay, and since then we now have another two weeks of inventory data, let’s update the picture….Read the rest

The question people are asking now is: What happens if we cannot refill the underground natural gas storage fast enough, and before winter rolls around again. And what if it happens to be exceptionally cold again?

Stay tuned.