Tag Archives: Oil Prices

If We Spend All Our Money on Electricity…

At a local level, the rising cost of electricity, whatever the cause, will result in severe economic pressures.

What’s important to realize is that 70 percent of our economy is based on consumer spending. “If people no more money, they no can spend.”

It all relates to costs.

See these Honolulu Star-Advertiser articles on the subject:

Geothermal power production could double

Hawaiian Electric Light Co. wants to tap more of the Earth’s power for electricity

By Alan Yonan Jr. 

POSTED: 01:30 a.m. HST, Jan 07, 2012

Officials from Hawaiian Electric Light Co. said Friday they will soon seek regulatory approval to more than double the amount of geothermal power produced on Hawaii island in a move that could provide some relief for residential utility customers, who pay the highest electric rates in the state…. Read more

and

Keep close eye on geothermal funds

POSTED: 01:30 a.m. HST, Jan 07, 2012

Hawaii has been touted as an ideal laboratory for the development of renewable energy that’s bound up in its wind, seas and sunshine. It’s the southernmost island in the chain, however, that may be the most richly endowed overall, and the most promising resource of all is the one that’s buried far beneath the surface…. Read more

Having attended four Peak Oil conferences now, I have seen that Jeff Rubin is one of the credible commentators on the world oil situation. His comments are especially relevant to the discussion about rising oil prices in Hawai‘i today.

Audio of Jeff Rubin’s talk at the most recent ASPO conference.

From his blog:

…The real story behind triple digit oil prices is not the threat of supply shocks, but the sheer, unrelenting rise in world oil demand.  Already closing in on 90 million barrels a day, the quick rebound in world oil consumption to new record highs demonstrates the global economy can’t grow without burning greater amounts of oil.

No matter how many rabbits the oil industry can pull out of its hat, be it tar sands from Alberta or shale oil from the Bakkens, supply just can’t seem to keep pace – at least not at the prices most consumers can afford to pay. That is the message that triple digit prices keeps telling us.

If the global economic expansion, troubled as it may be, continues, we will see even higher oil prices in 2012. But what does that say about the sustainability of growth?

And even if there is growth, what is the pace? Read the whole post here.

Jeff Rubin explains why he quit his job as Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets. In Hawai‘i, we call it kuleana.

After twenty years as Chief Economist for a North American investment bank, it was time for me to seek a larger audience for the story I needed to tell.

My predictions of steadily rising oil prices over the last decade, including my call for $100-per-barrel oil by 2007, had flown in the face of conventional wisdom.

Among other things, my track record on predicting rising oil prices demonstrated that the traditional laws of supply and demand were no longer working for one of the economy’s most basic and essential commodities. And when they stopped working, the consequences for the economy would be severe.

It wasn’t subprime mortgages but triple-digit oil prices that brought down the world economy.

And unless that economy started to wean itself off an ever-depleting supply of affordable oil, there would be other recessions to follow as economic recoveries would simply push oil prices right back into triple-digit range. But weaning our economy off oil meant, at the same time, making fundamental changes in the way we live.

This is not the kind of message investment banks want their chief economists delivering these days, to either governments or investors. But the urgency of this message grows with every passing day.

On March 31, 2009, I resigned my position as Chief Economist and Managing Director of CIBC World Markets to deliver this message in my book, Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization.

Jeff Rubin was the Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets for 20 years. He was one of the first economists to accurately predict soaring oil prices back in 2000 and is now one of the world’s most sought-after energy experts. He lives in Toronto.

Oahu’s Electricity Rates Surpass Other Islands

It used to be that the avoided cost (the part of your electricity bill that is due to oil) was higher on the other islands than on O‘ahu. This Hawaiian Electric (HECO) chart shows the rate on different islands back to 2008.

This past October, though, the avoided cost on O‘ahu, Maui and Hawai‘i Island was roughly the same, at approximately 15 cents per kwhr.

Now, O‘ahu’s avoided cost has about doubled. It’s 29 cents per kwhr now, and actually higher than on the other islands.

This is more proof of what has been clear to me since 2007, when I attended my first Peak Oil conference – that oil prices were going to just keep rising.

Avoided costs for January 2012: 

HECO (O‘ahu)

On Peak 29.167 cents per kwhr

Off Peak 19.060 cents per kwhr

HELCO (Big Island)

On Peak 21.656 cents per kwhr

Off Peak 17.656 cents per kwhr

MECO (Maui)

On Peak 20.240 cents per kwhr

Off Peak 19.194 cents per kwhr

MECO (Lana‘i)

On Peak 34.621 cents per kwhr

Off Peak 29.057 cents per kwhr

MECO (Moloka‘i)

On Peak 29.428 cents per kwhr

Off Peak 26.580 cents per kwhr

2011 Peak Oil Conference, Part 4: The Answer is Geothermal

“Find three solutions to every problem,  and then find one more just in case.”

PhotofromASPO2011Friday

The time for endless debate is over. We need action.

We know that it is becoming increasingly difficult to increase world oil supplies. There is no point in discussing, to a fine point, when Peak Oil will happen. It is more important to know the consequence of not being able to keep up with demand.

The consequence is rising prices. We have seen that when oil prices exceed $100 per barrel, the world economy starts grinding to a halt. But oil is already at $90+ per barrel, and the world is in a slow growth period. Could the “new normal” be slow or no growth?

How much time do we have? Just today we hear that Israel is considering bombing Iran. And business commentators are now looking beyond Greece to Italy. But Italy is too large for Germany and France to save. If the EU unravels, the consequence for the world economy is not pretty. So how much time do we have? I would say, “Not much.”

We need to look hard and find that extra solution to our problem. We need a solution that strengthens the aloha spirit and is proven technology, low cost, stable and an economic driver. Our solution needs to create no emissions and be large enough to make a real difference.

The answer is geothermal. But our electric utility is operating with one hand tied behind its back. It has a fiduciary duty to its shareholders, which prevents it from finding that one solution that solves all our problems.

We need to untie the utility’s hands.

Read the rest of this series on the 2011 Peak Oil Conference:

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

‘Crazy Economics’ of Oil/Gasoline Explained By Howard Dicus

Oil pricing is affected by many factors, but it’s important to be mindful of long term trends. Such as what I keep reminding you of here: That for the last 20-30 years, the world has been using twice as much oil as it has been finding. Just to keep up with the normal oil decline rate, we would need to find a Saudi Arabia every two-and-a-half years.

Hawaii News Now writer Howard Dicus wrote a very informative blog piece, about what causes oil prices to rise and fall, called The Crazy Economics of Crude Oil and Gasoline

The price of crude oil crashed today for reasons so complex and crazy it will surely reinforce your view that mankind has invented markets too complicated to manage.

…As a regular consumer, your encounter with energy prices is pretty straightforward:

  • When you need gasoline, you pay for it on the spot, then you get to use it.
  • When you need electricity, you get to use it, then you have to pay for it a few weeks later.
  • When you buy anything else, you know energy costs are usually buried inside the price.

When crude oil is bought and sold on commodity markets, there is a spot market to buy oil on the spot, but most oil is traded through contracts to deliver oil on a specific date in the future…..

Read the rest here

We are happy to see a decline in oil prices, but like I said, we need to be mindful.