Tag Archives: Big Island

Full Text of ‘Geothermal Working Group Interim Report’

I had a request to post the full Geothermal Working Group Interim Report, so you can read/download the complete Geothermal Working Group Interim report here.

From the report:

There is an urgency to developing new energy resources because Hawaii, like most of the world, is overwhelmingly dependent upon depleting supplies of fossil fuels. The consensus among credible resource scientists and many economists is that petroleum prices will rise to unprecedented levels in a few years. Since Big Island uses oil for 90% of its power, this is of the utmost concern to leaders in government and business.

…The volatility of petroleum-based energy makes business planning very difficult, whereas geothermal energy is stable. Jim Kauahikaua, Chief Scientist at Hawaii Volcano National Park Observatory, says that geothermal energy will be available to Big Island for 500,000 to 1,000,000 years.

Geothermal is the cheapest form of base power for Hawaii. A Wall Street Journal article estimated geothermal energy is produced at a cost equivalent to $57 per barrel. As of this writing, January-2011-delivery crude is $88.02 per barrel. Using geothermal as Hawaii’s primary source of base power will permit greater manufacturing competition relative to the rest of the world. Our standard of living will also rise relative to the rest of the world. Significantly, using geothermal as Hawaii’s primary source of base power will help folks on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder – those who would otherwise have their lights turned off first.

Kuokoa, Geothermal & Standard of Living

In modern Hawaiian history, the economy has taken, taken, taken and the culture has given, given, given.

Right here, right now, we have the ability to change this.

We can change things so the economy will give, give, give, and the culture – the people – will receive.

If we are successful in supplying the biggest proportion of our electrical base power from stable and inexpensive geothermal resources, thereby replacing oil, Hawai‘i will become relatively more competitive to the rest of the world, and, relative to the rest of the world, our standard of living here will rise.

I’ve written here before that I am involved with Ku‘oko‘a. It’s an idea whose time has come.

Lots of people have asked how they can help. Check out the Ku‘oko‘a website, where we will be posting ways you can help free Hawai‘i from fossil fuels, and at the same time help to raise the standard of living for our keiki.

I wrote more about The Geothermal Working Group’ Interim Report here at the blog:

There is an urgency to developing new energy resources because Hawai‘i, like most of the world, is overwhelmingly dependent upon depleting supplies of fossil fuels. The consensus among credible resource scientists and many economists is that petroleum prices will rise to unprecedented levels in a few years. Since Big Island uses oil for 90 percent of its power, this is of the utmost concern to leaders in government and business. Hawai‘i is the most petroleum-dependent state in the nation; the Big Island alone exports $1 billion annually to purchase oil for power. Geothermal is viewed as an important component in a suite of local and available energy resources. Read the rest

This is not about us. It is about future generations.

Why Wouldn’t We Use Geothermal?

The Geothermal Working Group’s interim report to the Hawai‘i State Legislature was the headline article in the Hawaii Tribune-Herald a couple days ago.

Big role for geothermal energy

by Peter Sur
Tribune-Herald Staff Writer
Published: Tuesday, January 18, 2011 9:29 AM HST

Huge rise in oil costs may spell trouble for isle unless switch made

Geothermal energy has “significant potential” to be the Big Island’s primary energy resource and replace shrinking oil supplies, a new report says…. Read the full story here

The report warns that world oil supplies are declining, and that we are dangerously vulnerable living where we do in the middle of the ocean; and also that we do have a solution very few people in the world have: Geothermal.

Jeff Rubin is former chief economist for CIBC World Bank-Canada. An optimist, he writes:

How Sustainable Is Growth with Triple-Digit Oil Prices?

Posted by Jeff Rubin on January 19th, 2011

With oil prices within spitting distance of triple-digit levels (Brent traded over $99 per barrel last week, while West Texas Intermediate was north of $90 per barrel), it may be time to reconsider just how long this recovery will run….Read more

Tell me, why NOT geothermal? Why wouldn’t we use geothermal? What am I missing?

Get thousand reasons why no can. I’m only looking for one reason why CAN!

The ‘Geothermal Working Group’ Interim Report

This week, the Geothermal Working Group Interim Report is being distributed to Hawai‘i state legislators. The report provides lawmakers with an evaluation of using the hot water reservoir in certain locations of Big Island to provide local and renewable energy for electricity and transportation.

In 2010, Senate Concurrent Resolution 99 was approved by a vote of 23-2 in the Hawai‘i State Senate and was unanimously approved in the state House of Representatives. SCR 99 created an 11-member Geothermal Working Group to evaluate geothermal energy for electricity in the County of Hawai‘i. The resolution instructed the Working Group to consider any potential impacts that expanding geothermal production might have on native forests, wildlife habitat, and Native-Hawaiian values and practices. The group is also tasked with recommending steps that can be taken to mitigate any adverse consequences from geothermal.

There is an urgency to developing new energy resources because Hawai‘i, like most of the world, is overwhelmingly dependent upon depleting supplies of fossil fuels. The consensus among credible resource scientists and many economists is that petroleum prices will rise to unprecedented levels in a few years. Since Big Island uses oil for 90 percent of its power, this is of the utmost concern to leaders in government and business. Hawai‘i is the most petroleum-dependent state in the nation; the Big Island alone exports $1 billion annually to purchase oil for power. Geothermal is viewed as an important component in a suite of local and available energy resources.

Geothermal is one of Hawai‘i’s main energy building blocks. Unlike solar and wind power, it is what’s called a “firm” resource—-always there. Molten rock (magma) remains below Earth’s crust, heating nearby rock, rainwater, and seawater that has seeped deep into the earth. Once those geothermal waters are brought to the surface, fresh-water steam is created and sent to the power plant driving turbines that in turn drive a generator to produce electricity. Afterward, the brine and gases are re-injected back into the ground below the water table.

Binary-cycle plants are the most advanced. Their closed-loop circulation system means that no excess gases or fluids reach the open air. Hawai‘i’s geothermal power plant utilizes the closed-loop binary system.

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  Commentary regarding the Geothermal Working Group Interim Report

Lloyds of London, in its white paper “Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic Risks and Opportunities for Business,” warns its business clients to be prepared for $200 per barrel oil by 2013. “Modern society has been built on the back of access to relatively cheap, combustible, carbon-based energy sources. That model is outdated.”

There is little sign that energy demand will go down, with forecasts suggesting a 40% increase by 2030. (Lloyds of London)

With average rates of decline from current fields, just to maintain current production levels would require the equivalent of a new Saudi Arabia coming on-stream every three years. (Lloyds of London)

While the vast majority of investment in the energy transition will come from the private sector, governments have an important role in delivering policies and measures that create the necessary investment conditions and incentives. (Lloyds of London)

  Public Relations

The development of geothermal energy in the Kilauea East Rift Zone has stirred a significant amount of controversy. The experimental HGP-A power plant (1976-1989) was not perceived as a “good neighbor” due to emission releases, the extent of brine ponds beyond the plant boundaries, and an unkempt appearance of the plant itself because of limited maintenance. Further exploration was opposed, often vehemently, by people expressing concern over various issues, including impacts on Hawaiian cultural and religious values, potential geologic hazards, public health, and loss of native rainforest, as well as changing the rural nature of Puna. During the establishment of the Puna Geothermal Venture plant, an episode of planned open venting and a number of uncontrolled steam releases stimulated the evacuation of some nearby residents and enhanced fears that the resource could not be safely tapped.

The PGV plant has been operating since 1993; most residents have accepted it as part of the grid power supply. However, there is continued concern about health and environmental issues among some residents near the plant. The relationship between PGV and its neighbors appears to have improved with better communication between the company and the adjacent residents.

Advantages

From an environmental standpoint, it’s difficult to find a more attractive option than geothermal power. Because the system is essentially a closed-loop; there are virtually no emissions, making it arguably the cleanest choice for energy production. Although other power sources, such as solar panels, also have no emissions, the treatments used in production of solar panels are much more environmentally degrading than building a geothermal plant to supply a comparable amount of energy.

The Geothermal Working Group advocates discussions on related topics and concerns – primarily, the best integration into the existing electrical-power grid of a variety of renewable energy resources. Hawaii is the most petroleum-dependent state in the nation; Big Island alone exports $1 billion annually to purchase oil for power. The future promises an even greater demand for power. Hawaii can meet tomorrow’s power needs by utilizing locally available resources. The report also analyzes the community, environmental and economic impacts of energy development in Hawaii.

Recommended Actions for the Hawaiian Legislature

  • Fund research and field work to catalog geothermal energy resources available on Big Island.
  • Fund research and field work to analyze the impact of transitioning from petroleum-fired power plants to geothermal.
  • Authorize a legislative agenda item to reconsider how the royalties from geothermal production are distributed to the state, county, and the neighborhoods that border geothermal plants.
  • Designate geothermal funds for programs that benefit local communities and that further develop the resource, rather than placing the royalties in the land fund.
  • Make a highly-efficient, non-fossil energy future a top priority.

The Geothermal Working Group Interim Report is intended for Hawaii state legislators and provides an analysis of developing new geothermal energy resources for the purpose of reducing Hawaii’s dependence on foreign petroleum. Senate Concurrent Resolution 99, sponsored by Senator Russell Kokubun, mandates an 11-member Geothermal Working Group. The resolution instructs the Working Group to consider any potential impacts that expanding geothermal production might have on native forests, wildlife habitat, and Native-Hawaiian values and practices.

Overview

Senate Concurrent Resolution 99 created the Geothermal Working Group to evaluate geothermal energy as the primary base power for electricity in the County of Hawaii. An analysis of the existing data and a synthesis of expert testimony evince overwhelming support for a plan of action that includes transitioning from fossil-fuel energy plants to local and renewable energy plants, while identifying and responding to public safety and environmental concerns at each stage of development. Funding for important research is required to ensure that the transition never harms people, property, or wildlife and that a robust and reliable supply of energy is always available. It is critically important to the welfare of Hawaiians that the transition begin immediately.

The Working Group’s principal findings are as follows: 

  • Multiple geothermal plants are the most prudent approach.
  • Historically, geothermal is a lower-cost energy resource.
  • Geothermal has the potential to supply baseload electricity, although it has not yet demonstrated baseload consistency in its application in Hawaii.
  • Geothermal is a renewable resource indigenous to Big Island and can neutralize the price volatility of petroleum fuel for the county, both in terms of the electrical grid and in terms of transportation.
  • Additionally, products that assist island agriculture can be cost-effectively produced with geothermal and replace the importation of products made on the mainland from fossil fuels.
  • Thus, Geothermal has a significant potential to be Big Island’s primary energy resource.

Royalties paid to Hawaii from geothermal

The amount of geothermal royalties paid to the State of Hawaii fluctuates each fiscal year, since power output and sales to HELCO vary. Over the last seven years, however, there is a trend of increasing revenues. Geothermal Royalties from 2001 to 2009 ………. $12,456,486.99

The Necessity for Action

The Geothermal Working Group advises a course of action that leads to energy independence and away from fossil-fuel dependence. The group advocates debate that addresses clean, renewable, and local energy production. They advise transitioning away from the use of imported and polluting fossil fuels. They request that the best and brightest face the challenges of controlling our destiny through innovation rather than depending so heavily upon the importation of foreign petroleum, whose price spikes undermine our economy and, ultimately, our way of life. There are no fossil fuel reserves in Hawaii; there are only 3% in North America. 65% of the world’s crude oil reserves are in the Middle East.

After decades of wars and the spread of religious fanaticism in the Middle East, we still depend upon this very unstable and dangerous region to supply the bulk of our energy needs. Demand for oil continues to skyrocket even as the supply of oil dwindles. A crisis looms and, unless we act now to avert the inevitable, oil prices will swing wildly in response to political, economic, and military events in foreign countries – events over which we have no control – and that will have catastrophic consequences in our own part of the world.

In the coming months, HELCO will perform high-level transmission studies to evaluate the expansion of geothermal generation. These studies will provide a general appraisal of the transmission requirements for additional geothermal generation, but will not be equivalent to the detailed interconnection studies required for specific projects.

Resistance Groups

There is still resistance to using geothermal energy by some members of the local community, even though many of the issues that triggered adverse reactions have been (and continue to be) addressed by government and PGV. However, there are well organized groups (such as the Pele Defense Fund, Rain Forest Action Network and other community organizations) that continue to express concern about the abilities of the government and developers to provide socially and environmentally sound geothermal power. Further, the level of support given by the state’s political establishment to expansion of geothermal capacity (there is presently only funding for one geothermal staff person at the state level) remains vanishingly small.

HEI’s Flurry of Announcements

I hear there’s somebody out there investigating me; making phone calls and asking questions about me and such.

To that person: Please feel free to call me directly. There’s nothing to hide and I’d be happy to answer any of your questions. Anybody with questions, in fact, I invite you to call me. My cell number is 808 960-1057.

Maybe what we should be investigating is what’s going on over at Hawaiian Electric Industries (HEI).

Since it was announced that Ku‘oko‘a is attempting to buy HEI in order to retire its old, oil-fired plants, the electric utility has issued a flurry of announcements:

1. The Star Advertiser reported an HEI deal with a large, wind farm operation. But it will not result in any oil-fired plants being shut down.

2. It was announced that there will be a large biofuel operation in Ka‘u on the Big Island. Its purpose will be to provide liquid fuel for HECO’s oil-fired plants.

But the EPA just announced that it was revising its 2011 estimate of cellulosic biofuels from 250 million gallons down to only to 6.5 million gallons. All the millions and millions of dollars that have been spent? They have not resulted in a single industrial-scaled production plant.

Maybe those folks in Ka‘u will be the first in the entire U.S. to be successful. We are rooting for them. But they are not farmers; they say they may grow sorghum or guinea grass. Farmers just shake their heads at that.

The real question is, How much will it cost Big Island citizens to subsidize this crop? And for how long would we be subsidizing it?

3. Maybe HEI will soon announce that the 8 MW geothermal contract is done. I thought it would have been done a year ago.

HEI should be putting more geothermal on line faster, rather than slower. They should be aggressively bringing more geothermal on line. They’re wasting valuable time. How come we’ve got this geothermal resource but are not using more of it? We know that if we use more of that cheap geothermal resource, it will really benefit us here in Hawai‘i.

HEI says they are for geothermal, but we know they truly are not, because they cannot shut down their oil-fired plant. They’re trying to make us believe they can and will, but they cannot, because they have to keep their stock value high for shareholders.

It’s why we’re looking for a new model.

Geothermal is the least expensive of all the base power alternatives for electricity, and its costs will be stable for as far to the future as we can see – unlike oil and biofuels, the costs of which will continue to go up.

The Renaissance of Agriculture in Hawaii

I was part of a panel discussion of the Hawaii Venture Capital Association, which presents a monthly professional meeting at the Plaza Club in Pioneer Plaza in Honolulu.

The topic was “The Renaissance of Agriculture in Hawaii.” Panel members were Darren Demaya of Kai Market at the Sheraton Hotel; Claire Sullivan of Whole Foods; Andres Albano of CB Richard Ellis; Kyle Datta of Ulupono Initiative, and myself.

Someone told me they thought the attendance at this event was exceptional. I thought, “Everyone likes to eat.”

Gubernatorial Candidate Neil Abercrombie sat with Kyle Datta and I before the event started. He told us that his style of operating is to ask the folks who know a subject to give their opinions on what should be done and how to do it. He said, I rely on you guys to get it done; you’re the experts.

At the end of this post is the speech I gave, as written. But, as always, I started winging it from the start.

I began by saying that I have the answer to the problem. After I let that sit for a few moments, I told them what it is:

“Food security is about farmers farming, and if farmers make money, farmers will farm.”

That’s all there is to it, I told them; it isn’t rocket science.

I told the group that my Ag and energy blog is called hahaha.hamakuasprings.com, and that it represents three generations of the Ha family. I told them that I just got an email from Gordon Vredenberg, my buddy from 7th grade who lives on the mainland now. He told me, “I ran across your blog, and boy, things have changed. There was a time that if someone repeated your last name twice in a row, there would be a scrap right there.” The audience laughed.

I repeated my phrase, “If the farmer makes money, the farmer will farm,” several times in my talk. I could tell it stuck.

Later, when someone asked what the future of agriculture might look like, I answered, “If the farmer…”

The audience cracked up. They knew the rest of the sentence: “…makes money, the farmer will farm.” It was a fun event.

But on a serious note, it was heartwarming to hear Darren Demaya and Claire Sullivan talk about their commitment to using locally grown produce. This helps “farmers make money.” Kyle Datta gave a high-level vision of how we are going to achieve food security.

Andres Albano presented a perspective that very few of us get to see. I didn’t know they were the ones responsible for marketing the entire C. Brewer land sale, which involved tens of thousands of acres. He described the value of the sugar infrastructure for food production, especially the water system. Of course, he is right.

After the panel discussion, people came over to talk. One person asked what I thought of large-scale, mechanized agriculture. I said that in the “new economy” it will be more important to have resiliency and redundancy, and so I prefer small- and medium-sized farming entities all over the state, instead of one giant industrial farm that might need to source foreign labor. It might cost a little more, but it will be a lot safer for all of us.

Lots of the conversation revolved around “If the farmer makes money, the farmer will farm.” I said that if the discussion strays and becomes a couple of steps removed from that basic thought, no sense waste the time. People really get that.

Here’s the talk I gave:

Renaissance of Agriculture

We farm 600 fee simple acres just outside of Hilo. We have 60 workers, and our primary products used to be bananas and hydroponic vegetables. Now they include sweet potatoes, sweet corn, taro, beans, etc. and will include more things. We have deep soil, three streams and three springs, and we are putting in a hydroelectric generator soon.

We are a family operation of three generations of Has. That is why our blog is called hahaha.hamakuasprings.com. We have been farming for more than 30 years.

Several years ago, we noticed our farm input costs rising, and realized it was due to oil.  We always try to position our company 5 to 10 years in the future, so in 2007 I went to the Peak Oil Conference in Houston to learn about oil. I learned that oil is finite, that the world is using 2 to 3 times more than we were finding and at some point we were going to find that we cannot produce more and then we will start down the backside of the oil supply curve. Sooner or later, we are going to face a new economy of higher oil prices.

Based on the idea that food security involves farmers farming and if the farmers make money the farmers will farm, we set out on a two-part Ag security plan for ourselves.

On a larger scale: We are promoting geothermal, the cheapest form of electricity base power. It would give folks discretionary income, so they could support local retailers and local farmers. That effort is ongoing.

And on our farm: We decided to transform our 600-acre fee simple farm from a one-entity production model to the “Family of Farms” model.

First thing we did back in 2007 was to pass legislation authorizing a special renewable energy farm loan program. It offers 3 percent, long term financing and is what we are using to help to finance our hydro project.

In June 2008, when oil price spiked and gas prices hit their peak, some of my workers asked to borrow money for gas to come to work. That was scary and clearly unsustainable.

We immediately decided to restructure our business to be relevant to the new economy. We knew that if farmers made money, farmers would farm and we wanted to add value for our retail customers. We began to implement our Family of Farms model. We decided to bring in area farmers to help keep the land in production.

To help farmers make money we:

  • Offer low-rent land, cheap water, deep soil, and plastic covered houses to grow crops
  • If farmers made money then we could make money by distributing
  • It would give all of us economic reasons to stay together.
  • Strengthen our brand by showing citizens that we are moving toward food security, giving them reason to support our brand.
  • Add value for our retail customers, who are interested in shortening their supply lines in the new economy.

Results we hope for:

  • Match our labor needs to the community.
  • Farmers from the nearby community. They have their own houses.
  • More productivity from our lands.
  • Profitability is reason for us to stick together.
  • More and varied food calories for the community.

Also, we are working with the USDA on a larger, zero waste program for the Hamakua Coast. We are working on renewable fuel projects that are appropriately scaled:

  • Biodigester for rendering plant down the coast. End products might be fertilizer, compost, etc.
  • Heterotrophic algae oil project that would get its carbon from our and others’ waste Ag products. Residual product to be animal/fish food.

To recap:

Considering the new economy is how we became directly involved in bringing the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) to Hawai‘i. It will help us transition and prepare our people on the Big Island for the new economy.

That is also why we are so involved in sourcing cheap geothermal for electrical base power. We are sitting on the largest battery in the world. The folks on the lowest rung of the economic ladder will get their lights turned off first if we choose expensive electricity. Too often they are Hawaiians. As oil prices rise, we become relatively more competitive to the rest of the world and our standard of living will rise relative to the rest of the world. Doing this will strengthen the aloha spirit.

The Family of Farms model brings us closer to our communities, while giving area farmers the opportunity to make money – because if the farmers make money, the farmers will farm. And for our workers we are actively planting ulu, bamboo, tilapia, etc. Since we have a difficult time raising our workers’ pay, we give them food from what we grow.

In the new economy, we will need stronger communities, we need to make more friends and stay closer to our families.

Not, no can. CAN!

Why Geothermal Will Increase Everyone’s Standard of Living

The paradox of living in Hawaii has long been that the native people give and give, and the economic system takes and takes.

Finally, we have a solution—one that is good for everyone and in multiple ways. I’m talking about geothermal.

We are using up our “cheap oil” every day now, and without cheap oil, our economy and world economies will not grow. Very soon, we will only have expensive oil, and when costs are too high we go into recession.

The growth of the world’s GDP will be less than it was yesterday, and maybe for as long as we can imagine. Neoclassical economists assume constant growth, but this is impossible when world oil supplies are decreasing as they are now.

This is why I’m such an advocate for using geothermal for energy on the Big Island. Its cost will not go up; it will stay steady even as world oil prices increase. As that happens, we will become relatively more competitive to the rest of the world. As the world’s standard of living declines, we will stay the same.

This means that our standard of living will actually increase, relative to the rest of the world.

Geothermal’s energy return on investment (EROI) is high. EROI is key:

…EROI is similar to its economic analog, which is return on investment (ROI). The idea is that you have a cost of getting a resource and hopefully you input that cost and you get some oil out. EROI is simply the energy produced from an energy extraction process divided by the energy you put in. We add up the cost of building the rig, the diesel fuel used on a rig, and what you get is a ratio of energy out divided by energy in. That number is essentially a measure of quality. It’s an efficiency calculation, but you can understand it as a measure of extraction and how difficult that extraction process is. Historically, if you look back at East Texas and see a lot of the big oil fields in the United States, the EROI was very high. Today, it’s obviously a much more complicated industry. For example, deepwater platforms cost billions of dollars and the wells are much deeper. The energy input has grown a lot. In general, EROI is this measure of extraction quality and how that changes over time…. Read more at The Oil Drum

Rainy Season at the Farm

It feels like the seasons are starting to change. This, the rainy time of year, is when the plastic covers on our growing houses are advantageous. Our crops grow, without interruption, all the way through February. During the shorter days, the ground stays damp because there are less hours of sunlight to dry up the soil.

Finally, in this past week, the stream is starting to increase in volume. We’d been starting to worry about the spring water flow. Coming back from Kona on the Saddle road recently, we noticed the pastures are starting to turn green. It feels like the dry period is over for some parts of the island.

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Here are some more pictures from the farm. This is the first kalo crop grown at Hamakua Springs and it looks really healthy. Tom Menezes is the farmer, and he really knows what he is doing. Among other things, he is a taro breeder.

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This is the first ‘ulu tree growing at Hamakua Springs. It wants to grow tall and we will have to constantly prune to keep its fruit within reach. We would rather plant a variety that is shorter in stature.

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We transplanted this ‘ulu at the farm a few weeks ago. Instead of fertilizer, we used the spent coconut media that we use for our hydroponic tomato crops. The tomato plant is a volunteer that germinated from the coconut media. There is one flower cluster, and the plant is very healthy even though we did not give it any conventional fertilizer.

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We found this kalo growing in the river and we are growing it on the hydroponic solution we use for green onions. To my great surprise, it has thrown out runners. I wonder what Jerry Konanui will say?

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There is a Big Island Solution to Rising Oil Prices

Lloyds of London warns its business clients to be prepared for $200/barrel oil by 2013.

Why? This video explains.

These folks are international oil experts. Watch the video again until you understand what they are saying.

The most important piece of information you need to understand is that the decline rate of aging oil fields is about 4 million barrels per day annually. This is due to aging oil fields. Every two years or so, we need to find the equivalent of a Saudi Arabia just to stay even with the natural decline rate. In order to keep up with demand, we need to make up for that and then also produce extra.

If one looks at a graph of HEI’s stock price over the last several years, one sees that after a slight lag, HEI’s stock price dropped like a rock in July 2008 when the oil price spiked.

The same thing will happen, but worse, when oil prices hit $200. Local HEI stockholders will face a loss of value of their stock while their electricity prices steadily rise. How is that being good to your stockholders?

It was my nightmare – where they send all the white-haired people away to go look for new land. The white-haired folks are the ones that depend on HEI stock for their retirement years.

There is a solution:

  • First, say unequivocally that HECO will not put expensive biofuels into its Big Island generating units. We don’t have the luxury of time to play games.
  • Second, commit to geothermal and get down to business figuring out how we are going to replace HECO’s oil-fired units. Don’t worry about community outreach, because we are taking care of that. And certainly do not send folks from O‘ahu to do what is our kuleana.

The higher the fraction of the base load we place in geothermal, the more we protect ourselves from volatile oil prices. We need to get serious about this. Now! We do not have the luxury of time.

When oil hits $200 per barrel, it will devastate our tourist industry and hurt American Savings Bank if we have not inoculated them from volatile oil prices.

We all know the benefits of geothermal; we don’t have to keep preaching about them.

We on the Big Island know that if we start to implement geothermal and work with the local people in an honest and respectful way, then we can have a discussion about shipping power to O‘ahu. But not before we take care of our business here first. If we do things in the right way, I am confident that we can ship geothermal power to O‘ahu.

HECO should have a Plan B, instead of betting everything on wind and the cable to Lana‘i and Moloka‘i. If we do this right, geothermal can be the stabilizing force that saves our economy. Price volatility prevents business from investing. Businesses need stability, and geothermal gives us that.

If HECO insists on putting expensive electricity-making solutions into its Big Island grid, it will be taking the wrong fork in the road and we don’t want to follow them there. I wrote about all the reasons we should go to geothermal after my second Peak Oil conference.  That was seven long months ago and time is ticking by.

If we move down the road toward geothermal, we will be moving toward stability and cheap energy.

I asked the folks at the University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization if it is fair to say that were we to get most of our base power from cheap geothermal, then we would be relatively more competitive to the rest of the world; and that our standard of living would rise, compared to the rest of the world. Carl Bonham, who is currently working on a formal analysis of $200/barrel oil, told me that it’s fair to say that.

What About ‘A Long Time’ Do We Not Understand?

Just because O‘ahu does not have a base power solution to
electricity, and needs to grow biofuel to generate electricity, that does not mean the Big Island – which has a vast geothermal resource – needs to grow expensive biofuels just to copy O‘ahu.

We need to treat each island as a bundle of resources, and solve each island’s problems according to the resources it has. We cannot afford a one-size-fits-all plan.

Farmers make these kinds of decisions all the time. You work
with the ground under your feet, not the ground that exists the next valley over.

The Age of Oil is now 150 years old and we are already talking about decline. But the “hot spot” under the Big Island will last 500,000 to 1 million years.

What is it about “a long time” that we don’t understand?

This video is by Jeff Rubin, former chief economist at CIBC World Markets, the investment banking arm of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

In it, he gives a clear description of today’s oil situation and discusses why oil prices will be rising – and sooner than people think.

It’s because we simply are not finding as many new oil fields as we are using.  More and more, the evidence is growing and we need to come to grips with reality.

It does not have to be disastrous. But we do have to be smart and think like survivors.

Where do we want our future generations to be 150 years from now?