Tag Archives: Oil

Heading to Iceland

This is Part Two of a series; see Part One here.

Along with Ro Marth, CEO of Kuokoa, I have been invited to go to Iceland.

We want to find out how Iceland went from being a developing country in the 1970s to one of the most productive countries in the world today. With fishing, geothermal and hydro, they have food and fuel in abundance.

From Wikipedia:

While Iceland is a highly developed country, until the 20th century it was among the poorest countries in Western Europe….

In 2007, Iceland was the seventh most productive country in the world per capita (US$54,858), and the fifth most productive by GDP at purchasing power parity ($40,112)…. 

Renewable sourcesgeothermal and hydropower—provide effectively all of Iceland’s electricity[83] and around 80% of the nation’s total energy,[83] with most of the remainder from imported oil used in transportation and in the fishing fleet.[84][85] Iceland expects to be energy-independent by 2050. Iceland’s largest geothermal power plants are Hellisheiði and Nesjavellir,[86][87] while Kárahnjúkavirkjun is the country’s largest hydroelectric power station.[88]

If it’s true that an increasing energy supply due to oil is mostly responsible for the work that goes into manufacturing things – in other words, the world economy – then declining oil supplies will result in less manufacturing of stuff.

For the last 20 to 30 years, the world has been using twice as much oil as it’s been finding, and this trend will likely continue. Since the world’s oil supply is declining, rather than increasing, we cannot expect to rely on government grants, because governments rely on growth to get their revenues. This raises the question of how Hawaii State and County governments will balance their budgets.

We will have to tax the people who cannot bear the taxes when the economy is not growing. Or we need to grow the economy. Growing the economy is clearly the best alternative. But how?

I’m very interested in seeing what they are doing in Iceland.

We are Teaching Our Economics Students Wrong

In economics, we teach everyone that Land, Labor and Capital are the elements of production. Along the line, we forgot that energy from cheap oil is what made deploying Capital so important. We started to believe that growth was automatic. And we taught that to millions of students.

The U.S. Department of Education shows 4,861 colleges and universities with 18,248,128 students in 2007. We are teaching these students wrong. Millions of students are being taught that finite resources are not important.

The cover of the July 4th edition of Barron’s magazine says Get Ready for $150 Oil:

…As oil producers’ spare capacity gradually declines to worrisome levels, the average monthly price could reach a record $150 per barrel by next spring, with spikes to $165 or $170. With this, $4.50-a-gallon gasoline will become the norm. That will put a huge dent in consumer wallets, while ramping up the desirability of fuel-efficient cars.

Read the rest

Why is this a surprise?

We’ve known about Peak Oil for at least 20 years. How come our whole country was not warned, so we could be preparing?

Maybe this complex society we have built from cheap oil has become too complex to understand?

To look back: In the 1600s, those who owned lots of land were wealthy. The energy that made things grow was the sun. So the more land you had, the more sun energy was working for you. Makes sense.

Then in the 1700s, we started to use metal tools to produce more food and so we had extra people floating around. We organized the extra people in factories, and with steam engines we produced wealth. Okay, that’s understandable. The Industrial Revolution came about and Labor was an important factor of production. So far, so good.

Then in the mid-1800s we started to use cheap oil, and over the next 150 years we built a very complex society. We needed to keep score and deploy resources and so we described that as Capital. And things became very complex.

So what happens as oil starts to decline? It seems to me that the total amount of work the people of the world can do will also decline. Let’s say that instead of a full four quarts of gas, you are sent out to cut down trees with your chainsaw and only three quarts of gas. You will probably produce fewer logs and be less productive.

Hall_murphy_change-in-gdp

I think that is what we can expect to happen to the world economy.

I truly believe that the social science of economics has lost its way.

This is Part One of a three part discussion. See Part Two here.

A Quandary At HELCO

HELCO issued a Request For Information re: geothermal energy this week.

Although in my opinion Hawaiians are overwhelmingly in favor of geothermal, I am finding, as I ask around, that people are conflicted about HELCO’s intentions.

Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO), the parent company that owns Hawaii Electric Light Company (the Big Island’s HELCO) and the Maui Electric Company (MECO), readily acknowledges that it has a duty to protect the interest of its stockholders.

And when the interests of the stockholders and the interests of the people are in conflict, HECO’s loyalty lies with the stockholders.

That is at the heart of the problems they are having on Moloka‘i and Lana‘i. And it’s at the heart of the problems they deal with when facing the unprecedented future of rising oil prices.

Passing the cost and risk of Peak Oil, as a result of decoupling, straight through to the rate payers – the public – is not comforting to the people.

We need a new model here, one that lines up the needs of the people with the needs of the utility. We need a new model that transforms the utility into an economic driver, rather than an economic impediment. A new model that focuses on a better life for future generations.

People are very uncomfortable with the prospect of handing over, to future generations, a diminished life compared to what they had. We must do better.

There are a thousand reasons why no can. We need to find the one reason why CAN!

What About ‘A Long Time’ Do We Not Understand?

Just because O‘ahu does not have a base power solution to
electricity, and needs to grow biofuel to generate electricity, that does not mean the Big Island – which has a vast geothermal resource – needs to grow expensive biofuels just to copy O‘ahu.

We need to treat each island as a bundle of resources, and solve each island’s problems according to the resources it has. We cannot afford a one-size-fits-all plan.

Farmers make these kinds of decisions all the time. You work
with the ground under your feet, not the ground that exists the next valley over.

The Age of Oil is now 150 years old and we are already talking about decline. But the “hot spot” under the Big Island will last 500,000 to 1 million years.

What is it about “a long time” that we don’t understand?

This video is by Jeff Rubin, former chief economist at CIBC World Markets, the investment banking arm of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

In it, he gives a clear description of today’s oil situation and discusses why oil prices will be rising – and sooner than people think.

It’s because we simply are not finding as many new oil fields as we are using.  More and more, the evidence is growing and we need to come to grips with reality.

It does not have to be disastrous. But we do have to be smart and think like survivors.

Where do we want our future generations to be 150 years from now?

Coming Up Next Month: Peak Oil Conference 2010

It’s Peak Oil Conference time again. I highly recommend this conference, especially for folks in decision-making positions here in Hawai‘i.

I have attended the Peak Oil conference twice before, in 2007 and again last year. Both times I paid my own way and was the single, solitary person to attend from the entire state of Hawai‘i. This time, I am going as a representative of the County of Hawai‘i.

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Here’s the conference information:

Join us in Washington, DC Oct 7-9 for our 6th annual dialogue with the experts on peak oil, energy and the economy.

ASPO-USA members and subscribers receive a $100 discount on all registration categories through Sept 14, 2010

Register Now

More Tangible Benefits Than Ever!

Sometimes change is glacial, sometimes swiftly chaotic. Get the latest data from the best sources with up-to-date numbers on both conventional and unconventional production, depletion, flows, costs, and the opportunities and challenges that come with them.

Keynote Speakers

Geopolitics: Dr. James Schlesinger will announce and explain, once and for all, with updated finality that “The Peak Oil Debate is Over”, for above-ground and below-ground reasons;

Global Trade: Jeff Rubin will present his views on the “End of Globalization” due to energy constraints and be available all week as part of our interactive discussions;

National Security: Admiral Lawrence Rice will explain the U.S. military’s peak oil warnings during our Saturday plenary on national security with Michael Klare, Lt. Colonel Danny Davis, and Tom Whipple;

Transportation:  Dr. Charles Schlumberger of the World Bank will discuss liquid fuel concerns in aviation while Dr. Roger Bezdek, Anthony Perl and others will focus their analysis on the future of transportation.

Investing: learn the personal and institutional upsides and downsides from the Dean of the Energy Analysts, Charlie Maxwell, and don’t miss our popular peak oil investing sessions with Dr. Schlumberger, Jim Hansen, Lily Donge, Gregor Macdonald and others.

See Full Agenda and Speakers

* It’s not just another great ASPO-USA Conference. It’s Conference+Plus. It’s the Year of Hydrocarbon Hell, and our peak oil message will not be ignored by the powers that be. Just to make sure, we are taking the message to the policymakers with a Senate Briefing, a House Briefing, a National Press Club news conference, and other targeted outreach efforts inside and outside the Beltway. Two highly-respected consulting firms are helping to organize ASPO’s first ever fire-hose-data-flow to lawmakers. First come, first served with strictly limited seating for these special events.

 * Sometimes wine and hors d’oevers are better than PowerPoints.  Imagine you’re at the opening reception having a drink with Art Berman, and you ask about his work on the 2010 National Petroleum Council Study. He shares with you the latest input from Jean LaHerrere. Or you overhear some information about the forensic investigation of the BP blowout preventer. This kind of information doesn’t come with the DVDs.

Come to the Conference on the Future of Energy

Register Today!

Call 877-363-ASPO (2776) or email webmaster@aspousa.org