I’m in Houston to attend the Produce Marketing Association tradeshow, which started last Friday.
I decided to stay on for the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference, which started Wednesday. ASPO is a non-partisan, non-profit association dedicated to the study of “Peak Oil.” That’s a term describing the last point at which the world’s supply of oil can accomodate the demand for oil. After that, demand will permanently exceed supply.
I became aware of ASPO while scanning the Internet. Its supply-and-demand, common sense approach to the problem resonated with me, so I started to read its daily report. I followed those reports and came to the conclusion that ASPO does offer a balanced approach.
When I learned ASPO’s U.S. conference was occurring just after the PMA trade show and in the same city, I decided to attend. So here I am.
This conference is, by far, the most interesting and important one I have ever attended. Its panel members and presenters have stellar credentials—they are former CIA officials, executives from major oil companies, investment advisors, university researchers, etc. The presentations have been full of substance. I’ve sat through presentations from 8 a.m. to 9 p.m. without wanting to skip out.
I am now absolutely certain that ASPO is credible and that its web information update on the Oil Drum is also credible.
A relatively few giant oil fields produce most of the world’s oil. There have not been any significant new oil fields discovered in the last 20 years, and the older, super-giant oil fields are declining in production. Discoveries of new, smaller oil fields are barely keeping up with the fields that are declining.
The big problem is that the demand for oil is increasing at an alarming rate. China is growing at an incredible rate. It has 10 times our population, and right now only 16 percent of its people own cars. And then there’s India, too. Soon we will reach the point where oil production cannot keep up with world demand for oil.
No one knows when, but ASPO feels this will occur around 2012, which is just over four years from now. Others think it will occur 10 years later. Many think that it has already happened.
No one debates whether or not Peak Oil will occur—they only disagree about when.
Regardless of when, it is prudent to take action before we get to that point. We need to spread the word that we are close to a serious turning point regarding our oil supply. And we need to get people’s advice about what actions we should take.
More than 60 percent of America’s oil use is for transportation. Can we adjust to our gas prices rising four-fold? Agriculture, too, depends on fossil fuels, as do fertilizer, chemicals, packaging and transportation. Therefore, imported food prices will start to rise.
Can we make the adjustments we need to do? Will we be able to feed Hawai‘i’s people?
In Hawai‘i, I believe we can make the adjustments we need to keep our food distribution dependable. But it is going to require thinking “outside the box.” We all can do this!