At the ASPO conference I just attended, it was projected that the peak of the world’s oil production (after which time, demand will exceed supply and prices will rise sharply) may occur in 2011 or so. As do some others, though, I think the peak may have already taken place. This article, entitled Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations, is bleak.

A graph in this article projects a permanent decline in the United States’ gross domestic product because of limitations on oil and natural gas. This assumes it would not, at that point, be “business as usual.”

At the conference, I met Gail Tverberg, who wrote that article. She is a very soft-spoken and thoughtful person. She made this complex subject easy to understand.

I mentioned to her the connection between oil and food and she included it in this morning’s post. She wrote to me yesterday saying that, in some ways, food is more important than oil. RIGHT! No more food, no more people.

We are incredibly fortunate to live in Hawai‘i, where the sun shines all year long. In the old days, the sun provided 100 percent of the energy we needed to grow our food. Cheap oil has camouflaged that. But as oil prices rise, sunshine is still free.

Farmers can use some help in developing alternate energy sources to help them with their work. The Hawai‘i Farm Bureau has included in its legislative package a new Department of Ag farm loan program that gives them this help.

Farmers cannot wait for public utilities to bring down energy costs. I trust individual farmers more to do what they need to do. Think small-scale bio diesel. There are other ways as well—things like windmills, hydroelectric, solar, etc.

The more one farmer can produce, the more vibrant our society will be post-oil decline. We do not want to go back to where everyone has to fish, or farm, to feed their family. It all has to do with how much help a farmer can get from alternate energy to help him with production.

Our challenge now is to see how we can get Hawai‘i farmers to grow more food for our people. As imported food prices rise, I believe that local farming will become more profitable. That, and the proliferation of farmers markets, will make farming profitable.

I am very aware of the Cuba and North Korea models. Both were dependent on oil supplies from the former Soviet Union. When it collapsed, they had to fend for themselves. As a result, North Korea has widespread famine and crop failures, while Cuba has survived quite well. I think that the basic difference is that Cuba has more energy from sunshine than North Korea. Still, I think that we can improve on the Cuba model.

I believe that we should send a hopeful message that although oil is becoming more scarce, and prices of our imported food are rising, there are things that we can do. Such as:

• Landscape with plants that make food. Garden where possible and plant fruit trees, etc. ‘Ulu trees come to mind, because they provide an abundant supply of a tasty starch food.

• I think houses should have waste water lines plumbed in, so people can reuse the water for gardens. Then farmers will produce for people who cannot grow food themselves.

• People need to start thinking about getting to know their neighbors, plan what they can trade, and get closer to their families. Kids can have chores taking care of the plants. This is not a bad thing. We kids in my family fed the chickens before we went to school.

No problem; we can do this.

The Sustainability 2050 project that the state of Hawai‘i is preparing right now will be very valuable. But it needs to include Five Year Plans, because things are moving fast. The sustainability council also needs a strong Ag person on the council.

And food should be the top priority. We need to do an assessment of the number and composition of calories necessary to maintain a population of 1.5 million. Andrew Hashimoto, Dean of the University of Hawai‘i College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources, mentioned something like 2 billion calories per year. We should compare this number of needed calories to what we are able to provide now—how many calories’ worth of food we grow in Hawai‘i now—from the point of view of human nutrition. This will give us a road map to follow.

I am optimistic that we can successfully achieve these goals and show the rest of the nation the Aloha way.